A poll whose result has national implications

For the seventh time since the election of the European Parliament by universal suffrage, voters are asked to choose their MEPs Sunday. A poll whose result has national implications.

The extent of forbearance. Except for improbable surprise, more than one voter in two should eschew the ballot box Sunday. Each there will be a sign of a shift to Europe, others épingleront voting by regional districts, others will still show the major parties of having fled the debate by a short campaign. Rest that is, if the record of 2004 57.2, of never-seen under the Fifth Republic off referendum will be beaten. The latest polls give an abstention rates between 53 (CSA) and 63 (FIFG).

The order of finish. It depends on the number of elected officials and thus the victory in the proportional representation in a turn. No list of right came first in the European since 1994 (25.6 for the UDF - RPR coalition) and the last party of Government to be reached is the PS in 1999 (21.9). The UMP has, this time, the possibility. But the gap with his main opponent, the PS will be equally important. Because the UMP-new Centre coalition represents almost all of the parliamentary right when the PS is subject to the competition the modem, the Greens and the left Front. In anticipation of the result, the Socialist Jean-Marc Ayrault already rode his interpretation: "the UMP will be ultra-minoritaire, 70 of the votes.

will be the votes of opposition.

The third force. The Modem and Europe ecology are vying for the bronze medal. For the first time, a published TNS Sofres survey yesterday even credited environmentalists for an advance of 2.5 points on the centrist party. If such was the case Sunday, it would be a hard blow to François Bayrou, the entire strategy is emerging to here in 2012 as an alternative to the PS to defeat Nicolas Sarkozy. If it is not intended to stay in France, Daniel Cohn-Bendit, hope, anchoring a strong ecological pole in France.

The weight of the "no". Four years after the rejection of the European Constitution by the French, the institutional debate has been totally absent from the campaign. But six lists still hope to capitalize on the mistrust which was expressed then. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan "Gaullist", the sovereigntist Philippe de Villiers and national Front play their future. But they seem to barely alongside a UMP cajole their voters. The left of the left hopes to attract the disappointed of the PS but the competition is intense and the stakes high for each. Ex-PS Jean-Luc Mélenchon must demonstrate its Communist allies that its presence allows them to improve their score (5.88 in 2004) and to resist Olivier Besancenot, which must prove that its new anticapitalist Party exceeds the deceased CRL. The new LO spokeswoman, Nathalie Arthaud, must, ensure the succession of Arlette Laguiller.

A capital region. Ile-de-France focused attention. Decliners jostling, of Michel Barnier to Eva Joly passing by Rachida Dati, Harlem Désir, Benoît Hamon and Daniel Cohn-Bendit. Of the eight electoral districts, it is, with South-East, one which elected the greatest number of MEPs (thirteen). And, especially, its borders coincide exactly with those of the region. The results will give some indication of the force political report to a year in the regional. Even if they defend themselves to a tower of heating, the PS President of the region, Jean-Paul Huchon, as its rival UMP, Valérie Pécresse, participated in meetings for the European.

The next battle. It is Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the first, taken the alarm: "the Sarkozy method is better suited to a vote in a turn to a two-round voting." If the majority took the lead Sunday confirmed its ability to identify the FN, a serious problem will arise in it for the regional 2010 and 2012 presidential: lack of reserves of votes now that François Bayrou centre lies clearly in opposition. The PS will be confronted with the threat of a dispersion of the left in the first round (who can deprive him of dynamics) and the need always sensitive to the PS to alliance with the Modem to the second. A few sleepless nights in perspective to 20 Presidents PS of metropolitan areas.